Shorting flows and return predictability in Taiwan

Abstract

Wang et al. (2020) show that short- and long-term shorting flows are strong predictors of future stock returns in the U.S. markets during 2010–2015. Their results are in line with the informed shorting hypothesis that short sellers trade on long-term information that is gradually incorporated into stock prices. This study extends Wang et al.'s (2020) analyses to the Taiwan stock market by proposing that the impositions of the up-tick rule and price limits provide an ideal setting to test the informed shorting hypothesis. We show that short- and long-term shorting flows have strong predictive power for future stock returns in Taiwan, suggesting that short sellers' trading does contain significant incremental information about future stock returns under the restrictions of the up-tick rule and price limits.