Short to Medium Range Weather Forewarning System in India

Abstract

AbstractIndia experiences several types of natural disasters including cyclones, floods, droughts, earthquakes, landslides, heat waves, cold waves, thunder squalls, and tornadoes. Most of these natural disasters (about 80%) are hydro-meteorological in nature. The risk management of these natural disasters includes several steps based on their severity and importance, such as (i) hazard analysis, (ii) vulnerability analysis, (iii) preparedness and planning, (iv) early warning, and (v) prevention and mitigation. The early warning component includes (i) skill in monitoring and prediction of natural hazards, (ii) effective warning products generation and dissemination, (iii) coordination with emergency response units, and (iv) public awareness and perception about the credibility of the official predictions and warnings. There has been a significant improvement in multi-hazard monitoring and warning system in recent years due to various initiatives of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)/India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the policy framework of the Government of India. The resolution of global models has increased 10 times from 120 to 12 km and that of regional models 3 times from 27 to 3 km in these 10 years. The lead period of the models has also increased from 48 h to 10 days forecast in the interval of 3 h. Improved warnings with increased accuracy and high lead period against hazards like cyclones, heavy rainfall, and heat wave have helped disaster managers and general public to minimize loss of lives and property. Especially the deaths due to cyclones and heat waves have been limited to <100 in recent years. There is still scope for improvement of forecast and early warning at district and station levels in terms of improving the mesoscale hazard detection and monitoring, improving the spatial and temporal scale of forecasts, sectoral applications of early warning and warning communication to last mile and disaster managers through state-of-the-art technology. All these aspects have been discussed in this chapter with special emphasis on prediction skills and socio-economic impacts, existing gap areas, and future scope.KeywordsWeather forecastingEarly warningSocio-economic benefit