Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Study and Its Application Using a Hybrid Model Optimized by Cuckoo Search

Xuejun Chen,Shanshan Qin,Shiqiang Jin,Laping Li

doi:10.1155/2015/608597

Abstract

The support vector regression (SVR) and neural network (NN) are both new tools from the artificial intelligence field, which have been successfully exploited to solve various problems especially for time series forecasting. However, traditional SVR and NN cannot accurately describe intricate time series with the characteristics of high volatility, nonstationarity, and nonlinearity, such as wind speed and electricity price time series. This study proposes an ensemble approach on the basis of 5-3 Hanning filter (5-3H) and wavelet denoising (WD) techniques, in conjunction with artificial intelligence optimization based SVR and NN model. So as to confirm the validity of the proposed model, two applicative case studies are conducted in terms of wind speed series from Gansu Province in China and electricity price from New South Wales in Australia. The computational results reveal that cuckoo search (CS) outperforms both PSO and GA with respect to convergence and global searching capacity, and the proposed CS-based hybrid model is effective and feasible in generating more reliable and skillful forecasts.

Highlights

In the contemporary energy market, the demand for electricity soars intensely due to the development of economy and society, while reserves of fossil fuel for power generation are becoming exhaustive and various ecosystem problems are increasing
This study proposes an ensemble approach on the basis of 5-3 Hanning filter (5-3H) and wavelet denoising (WD) techniques, in conjunction with artificial intelligence optimization based support vector regression (SVR) and neural network (NN) model
As the result of respective smooth preprocessing data after 5-3H, and as making many an experiment, we discover that decomposing the data to one layer has the best effectiveness of denoising, which otherwise could denoise excessively to get rid of useful information of original data

Summary

Introduction

In the contemporary energy market, the demand for electricity soars intensely due to the development of economy and society, while reserves of fossil fuel for power generation are becoming exhaustive and various ecosystem problems are increasing. Under this serious condition, renewable, clean, and nonpolluting energy becomes alternative energy for substituting fossil fuel. As the increasing generation of wind power and the growth of integration of wind power into grid system, electricity generation based on wind energy resource has been playing an increasing role in China. Despite the high cost of wind power plant, wind power has its unique advantages especially at remote locations which are rich in wind energy resource in China

Results

Discussion

Conclusion