Short Term Wind Speed Forecast Revision Method Based on Volatility Characteristics and Confidence Level

Abstract

Accurately forecasting short-term wind speed can effectively reduce the adverse effects of wind power in power systems and improve the competition of wind power in power markets. Because of the wind randomness, there are huge forecasting errors existing in those commonly used forecasting methods at wind mutation points, and through improving the forecasting method itself can merely provide positive effect. From the angle of revision, a new method is going to be proposed and applied to revise the forecasted wind speed in this paper, which is based on the historical data fluctuation characteristics and confidence level. Under this method, we can turn the original forecasted wind speed into the optimized wind speed. The revision method can be applied on all short-term wind forecast methods. The validity and feasibility of this method are going to be verified through a wind speed forecasting method based on the Grey model GM(1,1).