Short-term wind power prediction model based on ARMA-GRU-QPSO and error correction

Abstract

Power system dispatch benefits from accurate wind power predictions. To increase the prediction precision for wind power, this paper proposes a combined model for predicting short-term wind power based on the autoregressive moving average-gated recurrent unit (ARMA-GRU). Firstly, we build the ARMA model and GRU model respectively to predict wind power. Then we optimize the combined model’s weights by quantum particle swarm algorithm (QPSO). Finally, we build an error correction model for the prediction errors to acquire the final results for the wind power predictions. Our experimental results prove the model’s reliability and the model’s high predictability is verified by comparing different prediction models.