Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based On Particle Swarm Optimization-Extreme Learning Machine Model Combined With Adaboost Algorithm

Abstract

As the proportion of wind power in the world's electricity generation increases, improving wind power prediction accuracy is vital for making full use of wind energy and ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power grid. Given the uncertainty and volatility of wind power and the weak generalization ability of the current wind power prediction models, we propose a wind power prediction model that combines Adaboost algorithm with extreme learning machine optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO-ELM). First, particle swarm optimization is used to optimize the initial thresholds and input weights of the ELM to obtain the PSO-ELM basic prediction model. Then, combined with the Adaboost algorithm, a series of PSO-ELM weak predictors with input weights and thresholds optimized by PSO and containing different hidden layer nodes are composed. Finally, each weak predictor is weighted and fused into a strong prediction model of wind power, and the final prediction results are output. In this paper, the Adaboost-PSO-ELM model is verified by a wind turbine's measured data in Turkey. The prediction indicators are compared with the current wind power prediction methods including optimized neural networks and ensemble learning models. The results show that the Adaboost-PSO-ELM wind power prediction model has higher accuracy and better generalization ability.