Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Approach Based On Bayesian Optimization and Ensemble Learning

Abstract

In wind energy studies, predicting the short-term energy generation amount for wind power plants and determining the production offer to be placed on the market play an important role. In this study an hourly short-term wind power estimation of a wind turbine located in Turkey with an installed power of 3600 kW has been made. Estimation results were evaluated on a seasonal and annual basis. New hybrid models have been developed for short-term wind power prediction, consisting of Bayesian Optimization (BO), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Decision Tree (DT), stacking, and bagging algorithms. In the proposed prediction approach, it is aimed to reduce prediction errors by combining different regression algorithms with the BO method and ensemble algorithms. Unlike other wind prediction studies, BO was used for the first time in the hyperparameter selection of the regression algorithms selected as the basic learner in the study. Bayesian optimized decision tree (BO-DT) with the lowest error values among the base learners, and Bayesian optimized gaussian process regression (BO-GPR) combined with bagging and stacking. The efficiency of ensemble learning algorithms was measured by the statistical measurement methods Normalized Absolute Mean Error (NMAE), Normalized Root of Mean Squares Error (NRMSE), and determination coefficient (R 2 ). According to the results, the bagging method created with the BO-DT took the annual average NRMSE, NMAE, R 2 criteria of 11.045%, 4.880%, 0.899, respectively, and the model with the best performance was selected in terms of both annual and seasonal results.