Short-term wind farm cluster power point-interval prediction based on graph spatio-temporal features and S-Stacking combined reconstruction

Abstract

Wind energy is becoming increasingly competitive, Accurate and reliable multi-engine wind power forecasts can reduce power system operating costs and improve wind power consumption capacity. Existing research on wind power forecasting has neglected the importance of interval forecasting using clusters of wind farms to capture spatial characteristics and the objective selection of forecasting sub-learners, leading to increased uncertainty and risk in system operation. This paper proposes a new “decomposition-aggregation-multi-model parallel prediction” method. The data set is pre-processed by a decomposition-aggregation strategy and spatial feature extraction, and then a Stacking model with multiple parallel sub-learners selected by bootstrap method is used for point and interval forecasting. Experiments and discussions are conducted based on 15-min resolution wind power data from a cluster dataset of a wind farm in northwest China. The experimental results indicate that the method achieves higher accuracy and reliability in both point prediction and interval prediction than other comparative models, with a root mean square error value of 7.47 and an average F value of 1.572, which can provide a reliable reference for power generation planning from wind farm clusters.