Short-term travel-time prediction on highway: A review on model-based approach

Abstract

Emerging technologies provide a venue on which on-line traffic controls and management systems can be implemented. For such applications, having access to accurate predictions on travel-times are mandatory for their successful operations. Transportation engineers have developed numerous approaches including model-based approaches. The model-based approaches consider underlying traffic mechanisms and behaviors in developing the prediction procedures and they are logically intuitive unlike datadriven approaches. Because of this explanation power, the model-based approaches have been developed for the on-line control purposes. For departments of transportation (DOTs), it is still a challenge to choose a specific approach that meets their requirements. In efforts to develop a unique guideline for transportation engineers and decision makers when considering for implementing modelbased approaches for highways, this paper reviews model-based travel-time prediction approaches by classifying them into four categories according to the level of details involved in the model: Macroscopic, Mesoscopic, CA-based, and Microscopic. Then each method is evaluated from five main perspectives: Prediction range, Accuracy, Efficiency, Applicability, and Robustness. Finally, this paper concludes with evaluations of model-based approaches in general and discusses them in relation to data-driven approaches along with future research directions.