Short-Term Travel Time Prediction: A Spatiotemporal Deep Learning Approach

Abstract

Traffic prediction is a complex, nonlinear spatiotemporal relationship modeling task with the randomness of traffic demand, the spatial and temporal dependency between traffic flows, and other recurrent and nonrecurrent factors. Based on the ability to learn generic features from history information, deep learning approaches have been recently applied to traffic prediction. Convolutional neural network (CNN) methods that learn traffic as images can improve the predictive accuracy by leveraging the implicit correlations among nearby links. Traffic prediction based on CNN is still in its initial stage without making full use of spatiotemporal traffic information. In this paper, we improve the predictive accuracy by directly capturing the relationship between the input sequence and the predicted value. We propose the new local receptive fields for spatiotemporal traffic information to provide the constraints in the task domain for CNN which is different from traditionally learning traffic as images. We explore a max-pooled CNN followed by a fully connected layer with a nonlinear activation function to convolute the new local receptive fields. The higher global-level features are fed into a predictor to generate the predicted output. Based on the dataset provided by Highways England, we validate the assumption that there exists direct relationship between the input sequence and the predicted value. We train the proposed method by using the backpropagation approach, and we employ the AdaGrad method to update the parameters of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed method can improve the predictive accuracy.