Short-Term Traffic Forecasting by Mining the Non-Stationarity of Spatiotemporal Patterns

Abstract

Short-term traffic forecasting is important for the development of an intelligent traffic management system. Critical to the performance of the traffic prediction model utilized in such a system is accurate representation of the spatiotemporal traffic characteristics. This can be achieved by integrating spatiotemporal traffic information or the dynamic traffic characteristics in the modeling process. The currently employed spatiotemporal k-nearest neighbor (STKNN) model is based on the spatial heterogeneity and adaptive spatiotemporal parameters of the traffic to improve the prediction accuracy. However, the non-stationary characteristics of the traffic cannot be fully represented by simply modeling the entire time range or all the time partitions based on experience. We therefore developed a dynamic STKNN model (D-STKNN) for short-term traffic forecasting based on the non-stationary spatiotemporal pattern of the road traffic. The different traffic patterns along the road are first automatically determined using an affinity propagation clustering algorithm. The Warped K-Means algorithm is then used to automatically partition the time periods for each traffic pattern. Finally, the D-STKNN model is developed based on the three-dimensional spatiotemporal tensor data models for the different road segments with different traffic patterns during different time periods. The D-STKNN model was verified through extensive experiments performed using actual vehicular speed datasets collected from city roads in Beijing, China, and expressways in California, U.S.A. The proposed model outperforms existing seven baselines in different time periods under different traffic patterns. The results confirmed the imperative of considering the non-stationary spatiotemporal traffic pattern in developing a model for short-term traffic prediction.