Short Term Storm Surge Forecasting

Abstract

This paper discusses storm surge water levels along with exploratory data analysis, development of event magnitudes for characteristic surge return periods, and sort term forecasting potential of surge water levels using localized linear techniques. The area considered is a location in the New York-Long Island (N.Y.-L.I.) area. The short term local linear forecasting of storm surge water level is found to be meaningful for time periods on the order of 1–2 hours using only water level information without additional meteorological information. Characteristics of the historically large surge events for both Northeasters and Hurricanes are also discussed in the paper along with potential of local linear forecasting to provide useful information for various types of large water level events. The limited forecasting study is a first step in a planned broader assessment of forecasting future storm water levels for emergency management knowledge and planning.