Short-Term Solar Power Forecasting Based on Weighted Gaussian Process Regression

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power is volatile in nature and raises the level of uncertainty in power systems. PV power forecasting is an important measure to solve this problem. It helps to improve the reliability and reduces the generation cost. Advances in computer technology and sensors make the numeric modeling methods a hotspot in the field of PV power forecasting. However, data modeling methods strongly rely on the accuracy of measurement data. Unavoidable outliers in the measured meteorological data have an adverse effect on the model due to their heteroscedasticity. Although many studies can be found focusing on outlier detection, only a few have incorporated outlier detection with regression models. In this study, an innovative method employing the weighted Gaussian process regression approach is proposed, such that data samples with higher outlier potential have a low weight. A density-based local outlier detection approach is introduced to compensate the deterioration of Euclidean distance for high-dimensional data. A novel concept of the degree of nonlinear correlation is incorporated to compute the contribution of every individual data attribute. Effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by performing an experimental analysis and making comparisons with other typical data-based approaches, and the results exhibit higher estimation accuracy.