Short-term PV power forecasting in India: recent developments and policy analysis

Indradip Mitra,Aravindakshan Ramanan,Sunil Kumar Sharma,Mandeep Kaur,Sujit Kumar Tripathy,Arindam Roy,Detlev Heinemann

doi:10.1007/s40095-021-00468-z

Abstract

With ambitious renewable energy capacity addition targets, there is an ongoing transformation in the Indian power system. This paper discusses the various applications of variable generation forecast, state-of-the-art solar PV generation forecasting methods, latest developments in generation forecasting regulations and infrastructure, and the new challenges introduced by VRE generation. Day-ahead NWP-based GHI forecasting are validated against ground measurements from single and multiple sites in India. Recommendations for improving overall the forecasting infrastructure in India are presented.

Highlights

Power produced from solar and wind resource-based generators is variable in nature
This paper focuses on solar power forecasting and aims at, after briefly reviewing the applications of VRE forecasting and the methods to generate this forecast, documenting the recent evolution of solar power forecasting in the scope of Indian power system and other power systems of various countries, facing similar challenges in grid integration of solar PV and wind resources
Regulations pertaining to VRE generation forecasting and the ongoing development of centralized aggregate forecasting systems have been highlighted

Summary

Introduction

Power produced from solar and wind resource-based generators is variable in nature. The inherent uncertainty and variability in solar radiation and wind speed resource cause fluctuations in power generation from these resources. Very short-term forecasts of the order of minutes ahead at a high temporal resolution can be obtained from machine learning [99, 106] and sky imager-based predictions [74, 128]. Machine learning techniques such as ANN, SVR, This paper focuses on solar power forecasting and aims at, after briefly reviewing the applications of VRE forecasting and the methods to generate this forecast, documenting the recent evolution of solar power forecasting in the scope of Indian power system and other power systems of various countries, facing similar challenges in grid integration of solar PV and wind resources

Results

Discussion

Conclusion