Short- Term Probabilistic Analysis of Australian Wind Power Generation

Abstract

With the significant number of renewable generators being connected to power grids, the existing operating mode is challenged due to the intermittent nature of these generators such as wind farms. Therefore, it is important to properly consider the short-term variation in power generation through suitable probabilistic distribution (PD) models to better analyses and predict the wind generation. In this paper, a short-term probabilistic analysis and modelling is performed using the three -year generation data of Australian wind farms. The study has considered Normal distribution to represent the probabilistic variations in generation of wind farms and the standard deviations (SD) are calculated accordingly for various cases. It has been observed that the long-term data may lead to small SDs which may not accurately represent the probability of the short-term changes in the wind power generation. The study has also shown that continuous zero-generation conditions can adversely affect the probabilistic representation of short-term wind generation, which can lead to an incorrect prediction of wind-generation and subsequent system failures. This study provides a platform for more accurate analysis and forecast of wind generation to maintain the stability of the system.