Short-Term Precipitation Radar Echo Extrapolation Method Based on the MS-DD3D-RSTN Network and STLoss Function.

Abstract

Short-term precipitation forecasting is essential for agriculture, transportation, urban management, and tourism. The radar echo extrapolation method is widely used in precipitation forecasting. To address issues like forecast degradation, insufficient capture of spatiotemporal dependencies, and low accuracy in radar echo extrapolation, we propose a new model: MS-DD3D-RSTN. This model employs spatiotemporal convolutional blocks (STCBs) as spatiotemporal feature extractors and uses the spatial-temporal loss (STLoss) function to learn intra-frame and inter-frame changes for end-to-end training, thereby capturing the spatiotemporal dependencies in radar echo signals. Experiments on the Sichuan dataset and the HKO-7 dataset show that the proposed model outperforms advanced models in terms of CSI and POD evaluation metrics. For 2 h forecasts with 20 dBZ and 30 dBZ reflectivity thresholds, the CSI metrics reached 0.538, 0.386, 0.485, and 0.198, respectively, representing the best levels among existing methods. The experiments demonstrate that the MS-DD3D-RSTN model enhances the ability to capture spatiotemporal dependencies, mitigates forecast degradation, and further improves radar echo prediction performance.