Short-term pre-2004 seismic subsidence near South Andaman: Is this a precursor slow slip prior to a megathrust earthquake?

Abstract

We report here on the campaign GPS data from the Andaman Islands just previous to the great 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. The campaign-mode acquisitions at Port Blair showed that the site started to subside between 2003 and 2004. In addition, during this period, the horizontal displacement of Port Blair with respect to Indian plate, deduced from 1996 to 2000 GPS data, changed its orientation to that obtained during the 26th Dec 2004 co-seismic. This short-term subsidence can be modeled as slip in the up-dip portion of the fault, a slip that is equivalent to an earthquake with moment magnitude of 6.3. Previously, slow slip was thought to appear at intermediate depths roughly 35–55km but simple models of the deformation at this single site suggest slow slip at much shallower depth than this. This observation of subsidence obtained by GPS methods is in rough agreement with subsidence observed from tide gauge data. Campaign-mode GPS data between 1996 and 2000 suggest uplift for Port Blair during the inter-seismic period and so does the reported field observations of interseismic micro-atoll emergence. Lack of exposed land with GPS stations along the southern part of the thrust fault deprive of arriving at any indication of this preseismic subsidence in those areas. Although GPS data is lacking the geological indices reported from some sites on the Alaskan Coast, for example, imply short-term subsidence just previous to the great 1964 earthquake. The pre-earthquake subsidence recorded in Port Blair, therefore, may have global implications as a precursor signal of great earthquakes at least along some of the subduction zones.