Abstract
With the issuance of electricity reform No. 9 document in 2015, a new round of power system reform in China has been continuously pushed forward. With the gradual development of the pilot spot market in various provinces, the importance of load forecasting to the various main bodies of the spot power market has been constantly revealed. In order to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting in the spot market, and better highlight the randomness, periodicity and related trend of load fluctuation, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting based on grey model and the EMD combination model, predict the future 24-hour load. In other words, GM(1,1) is used to predict the residual value sequence of EMD decomposition. In order to ensure the stability of the residual value sequence, improve the accuracy of the prediction and improve the effect of short-term load forecasting. Combined with MATLAB tools, the combined prediction model was simulated and verified by using the America PJM power market load data. The comparison results of the combined model with the single GM(1,1) and GM(1,2) respectively show that the combined model can significantly improve the accuracy of load forecasting compared with the traditional grey model method, providing the method guidance for load forecasting to better participate in the demand response under the new market environment.
Highlights
With the rapid development of the smart grid technology and the improvement of the power market construction, the load forecasting of power system, which is the basis of the power grid management, is of great significance to the formulation of economic and rational power generation plan, unit combination, power grid planning, dispatching operation and so on
The power system load forecasting [1] is based on the historical data of power load, economy and society to explore the influence of the change law of power load historical data on the future load, so as to make a scientific research on the future power load
The model is simulated with the historical load data of the electric power market of PJM in the United States as the sample, and the simulation is compared with the traditional grey model prediction
Summary
With the rapid development of the smart grid technology and the improvement of the power market construction, the load forecasting of power system, which is the basis of the power grid management, is of great significance to the formulation of economic and rational power generation plan, unit combination, power grid planning, dispatching operation and so on. It can better guarantee the reliable development of national industry, agriculture and Commerce, the accurate load forecasting data provides reliable support for the construction of intelligent power grid. According to the monotonous increasing characteristic of the residual value sequence of EMD, this paper combines EMD and GM (1,1), first decomposes the load curve of the electricity market for one week before PJM, and decomposes the residual value sequence with GM (1,1) to fit the trend, preserving the original volatility of the load, and providing decision-making basis for future planning or scheduling of power grid
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