Short-term Photovoltaic Power Prediction based on Sparse Representation Method

Abstract

In the research of solar power prediction, providing accurate prediction data in real time is one of the most effective means to enhance the capacity of wind power acceptance and improve the power reliability and economy. The existing prediction models based on statistical methods are often unavoidable in data preprocessing and model training stage, and their adaptive ability needs to be improved. Considering that the sparse coding method does not require model training, and has the characteristics of high solving efficiency and strong self-adaptability, an online solar energy prediction model using sparse coding is proposed.Firstly, the historical time series data is composed of input-output pairs with delay, and the dictionary is respectively constructed in atomic form. Then, the sparse weight is calculated for the delay input data vector to be predicted, and the corresponding predicted output is obtained by borrowing the dictionary. Taking the actual solar power data of Alberta, Canada as sample, the simulation was carried out in MATLAB. The simulation results show that the model can accurately predict the solar power and improve the effectiveness and practicability of the prediction