Short-term Multiagent Simulation-based Prediction in Mass Gatherings Decision Support

Abstract

Mass gatherings emerging both for specific occasions and spontaneously, are naturally associated with the risk of stampedes and crowd clashes that may trigger dramatic consequences in shorter or longer term perspectives. In order to address such issues the present paper suggests the application of the agent- based modeling approach to short-term predictions of future states of large congregates of people. The latter is of prime value for practitioners who seek to identify the potentially dangerous areas where the risk of stampede-induced injuries is assumed the highest based on the estimations of the crowd pressure at a given spot. In this paper, we outline the algorithm for generating forecasts and on its basis, propose a system of decision support. The test of system applicability has been performed based on the 2018 World Football Championship stadium use case. The object under investigation is expected to be put into operation in 2018.