Short-Term Marine Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Dynamic Graph Embedding and Spatiotemporal Information

Abstract

Predicting wind speed over the ocean is difficult due to the unequal distribution of buoy stations and the occasional fluctuations in the wind field. This study proposes a dynamic graph embedding-based graph neural network—long short-term memory joint framework (DGE-GAT-LSTM) to estimate wind speed at numerous stations by considering their spatio-temporal information properties. To begin, the buoys that are pertinent to the target station are chosen based on their geographic position. Then, the local graph structures connecting the stations are represented using cosine similarity at each time interval. Subsequently, the graph neural network captures intricate spatial characteristics, while the LSTM module acquires knowledge of temporal interdependence. The graph neural network and LSTM module are sequentially interconnected to collectively capture spatio-temporal correlations. Ultimately, the multi-step prediction outcomes are produced in a sequential way, where each step relies on the previous predictions. The empirical data are derived from direct measurements made by NDBC buoys. The results indicate that the suggested method achieves a mean absolute error reduction ranging from 1% to 36% when compared to other benchmark methods. This improvement in accuracy is statistically significant. This approach effectively addresses the challenges of inadequate information integration and the complexity of modeling temporal correlations in the forecast of ocean wind speed. It offers valuable insights for optimizing the selection of offshore wind farm locations and enhancing operational and management capabilities.