Short term load forecasting of Taiwan power system using a knowledge-based expert system

Abstract

A knowledge-based expert system was developed for the short-term load forecasting of the Taiwan power system. The developed expert system, which was implemented on a personal computer, was written in PROLOG using a 5-year database. To benefit from the expert knowledge and experience of the system operator, eleven different shapes, each with different means of load calculations, were established. With these load shapes at hand, some peculiar load characteristics pertaining to the Taiwan Power Company can be taken into account. The special load types considered by the expert system include the extremely low load levels during the week of the Chinese New Year, the special load characteristics of the days following a tropical storm or a typhoon, the partial shutdown of certain factories on Saturdays, the special event caused by a holiday on Friday or on Tuesday, etc. A characteristic feature of the knowledge-based expert system is that it is easy to add new information and new rules to the knowledge base. To illustrate the effectiveness of the system, short-term load forecasting is performed on the Taiwan power system by using both the developed algorithm and the conventional Box-Jenkins statistical method. It is found that a mean absolute error of 2.52% for one year is achieved by the expert system approach as compared to an error of 3.86% by the statistical method.< <ETX xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">&gt;</ETX>