Abstract
The work presents the results of short-term health effects assessment of particulate matter (PM) in Warsaw, the capital of Poland. The influence of three PM fractions, PM10 (particles of aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm), PM2.5 (particles of aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm), and PMc (coarse fraction of diameter between 2.5 and 10 μm), modeled by the CALMET/CALPUFF system, has been studied in the period of 2013–2014. Six population health endpoints; daily counts of all-cause (ALL), cardiovascular (CV), and respiratory (RS) death cases; and ALL, CV, and RS hospital admissions were investigated with the use of statistical time series analysis via nonparametric generalized additive model (GAM) approach. The results show that PM2.5 increases the relative risk (RR) of ALL premature deaths by 0.7% per 10 μg/m3, as well as of CV mortality by 0.9%. PM10 exposures reveal the largest influence on mortality in a 2-day lag: 0.3% for all causes and 0.4% for CV causes, while for RS causes only in the elderly group (above 65 years, 1.4%) and for males (2.1%). The risk of hospitalizations increases with elevated PMc levels by 2.5%, 2.1%, and 4.6% for ALL, CV, and RS hospital admissions, respectively. The results suggest that the research on PM impact on health should concentrate more on attempts to assign specific health outcomes to PM originating from different types of sources, characterized by different granulation, as well as physical and chemical properties of emitted particles.
Highlights
Insufficient air quality in cities is one of the biggest challenges of present air quality management in the European Union (EU)
The core of this system consists of two models: CALMET/CALPUFF air quality dispersion model and a generalized additive model (GAM) which is a statistical tool for time series analysis
The results show that premature deaths are mainly related to immediate PM2.5 and delayed PM10 exposures, while the risk of hospitalizations increases with elevated PMc levels
Summary
Insufficient air quality in cities is one of the biggest challenges of present air quality management in the European Union (EU). According to the World Health Organization (WHO 2014), in 2012, the number of premature deaths due to outdoor air pollution worldwide reached 3.7 million. The 2013 Global Burden of Disease study has shown that poor indoor air quality and ambient air pollution are the 7th and the 12th leading global health risk factors, respectively (Forouzanfar et al 2015). In the EU, the number of premature deaths in 2014 attributed to PM2.5, NO2, and O3 was estimated as 399,000, 75,000, and 13,600, respectively (EEA 2017). PM seems to be of a major concern especially in the region of Central-Eastern Europe, Northern Italy, and the Balkans; the cities in Western Europe experience episodes of concentrations exceeding the existing air quality standards (EEA 2017).
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