Short-Term Forecasts of DNI from an Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF) for Optimized Operational Strategies of a Central Receiver System

Lopes Lopes,Canhoto Canhoto,Silva Silva,Fasquelle Fasquelle,Salgado Salgado,Collares-Pereira Collares-Pereira,Conceição Conceição

doi:10.3390/en12071368

Lopes Lopes, Canhoto Canhoto + Show 5 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/en12071368

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Journal: Energies	Publication Date: Apr 9, 2019
Citations: 20	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: University of Évora

Abstract

Short-term forecasts of direct normal irradiance (DNI) from the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and the global numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used in the simulation of a solar power tower, through the System Advisor Model (SAM). Recent results demonstrated that DNI forecasts have been enhanced, having the potential to be a suitable tool for plant operators that allows achieving higher energy efficiency in the management of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants, particularly during periods of direct solar radiation intermittency. The main objective of this work was to assert the predictive value of the IFS forecasts, regarding operation outputs from a simulated central receiver system. Considering a 365-day period, the present results showed an hourly correlation of ≈0.78 between the electric energy injected into the grid based on forecasted and measured data, while a higher correlation was found for the daily values (≈0.89). Operational strategies based on the forecasted results were proposed for plant operators regarding the three different weather scenarios. Although there were still deviations due to the cloud and aerosol representation, the IFS forecasts showed a high potential to be used for supporting informed energy dispatch decisions in the operation of central receiver units.

Highlights

With the simultaneous increase of solar energy conversion units installed worldwide and computational technology, interest has been growing in using direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts in the field of solar power, at a regional or global scale, for an efficient production of energy from concentrating solar power (CSP) plants
The outputs were selected according to their importance for the power generation and management of a central receiver (CR) power plant since the plant operator should analyze these parameters on a daily basis
And daily correlations of ≈0.78 and ≈0.89, respectively, were found for the System Advisor Model (SAM) predictions of the total electric energy injected into the grid, based on forecasted and measured DNI and meteorological conditions, an important variable for the power plant operator to handle on a daily basis

Summary

Introduction

With the simultaneous increase of solar energy conversion units installed worldwide and computational technology, interest has been growing in using direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts in the field of solar power, at a regional or global scale, for an efficient production of energy from concentrating solar power (CSP) plants. Energies 2019, 12, 1368 commercial solar power, into the electricity market It is during periods of direct solar radiation intermittency that CSP technologies demand accurate forecasts of DNI [4], since these periods are characterized by scattered clouds (which can differ in type and dynamic coverage [5]) and aerosols species [6], which are two primary factors that affect the direct solar resource at the ground level. An accurate conversion of predicted DNI to predicted energy output values from simulated power plant models is necessary. In this context, user-friendly software such as the System Advisor

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