Short-term forecasting of traffic delays in highway construction zones using on-line approximators

Abstract

Highway construction zones are often the cause of traffic delays. This is a natural consequence of the high congestion and nonuniform traffic flow conditions in construction zones. Most of the current algorithms for computing traffic delays are accurate for low density traffic conditions, and address the estimation of current travel time only. This paper presents a method for short-term forecasting of traffic delays in highway construction zones using data from presence detectors. The method is based on a modular approach wherein data from adjacent detectors is processed for estimating the travel time between the two detectors. The travel time estimates are then considered as time-series data, and the problem of short-term forecasting of traffic delay is formulated as a time-series evolution problem. A generic structure referred to as an on-line approximator is used for the prediction of travel time based on current and past travel time estimates. Simulation examples are used to illustrate the traffic delay forecasting algorithm.