Abstract
The prediction and forecasting of ionospheric delay at equatorial and low-latitude regions is an essential contribution for improving the global positioning system services. In this study, hybrid auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are implemented based on wavelet transform (WT) and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) for 1 h ahead forecast of ionospheric total electron content (TEC). The performance of ARIMA and hybrid models, WT and EMD in combination with ARIMA (WARIMA and EARIMA) is evaluated during various seasons and March geomagnetic storm conditions in 2013 and 2015. The proposed models are validated with empirical global TEC models and results show that the EARIMA has less error measurements compared with ARIMA and WARIMA models. The EARIMA ionospheric forecasting model can be useful for developing an early warning ionospheric space weather system over low latitudes.
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