Abstract
Depending on the day and time, electricity consumption tends to fluctuate and directly affects the amount of gained revenue for the company. To anticipate future economic change and to avoid losses in calculating the company’s revenue, it is essential to forecast electricity consumption revenue as accurate as possible. In this paper, Jordan Recurrent Neural Network (JRNN) was used to do short term forecasting of the electricity consumption revenue from Java-Bali 500 kVA electricity system. Seven JRNN models were trained using electricity consumption revenue between January-March 2012 to predict the revenue of the first week of April 2012. As performance comparators, seven traditional feed forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were also constructed. The forecasting results were as expected for both models, where both producing steady repeating pattern for weekdays, but failed quite poorly to predict the weekends’ revenue. This suggests that in Indonesia, weekends’ electricity consumption revenue has different characteristics than weekdays. Evaluation of the prediction result was carried out using Sum of Square Error (SSE) and Mean Square Error (MSE). The evaluation showed that JRNN produced smaller SSE and MSE values than traditional feed forward ANN, thus JRNN could predict the electricity consumption revenue of Java-Bali electricity system more accurately.
Highlights
As one of the largest economy drivers in South East Asia, Indonesia has experienced steady raise in the sector of industry, economy, and development since the Asian financial crisis on the late 1990s
Plotting of the predicted revenues from traditional feed forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model drawn side by side with the actual revenues from the first week of April 2012, for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Sunday are exhibited in Fig. 12, Fig. 13, Fig. 14, Fig. 15, Fig. 16, Fig. 17, and Fig. 18, respectively
Electricity consumption revenue is obtained from multiplying the current electricity price with the electricity consumption, the revenue is proportional to the electricity consumption
Summary
As one of the largest economy drivers in South East Asia, Indonesia has experienced steady raise in the sector of industry, economy, and development since the Asian financial crisis on the late 1990s This growth is directly proportional to the electric power demands. PT PLN (Persero), as the state company that handles all aspects of electricity in Indonesia, recorded a raise in electricity consumption every year, especially in the area of Java-Bali. It is no surprise, since more than a half of Indonesian reside in the area Java-Bali. An increase in revenue from this electricity consumption could cover the production cost, and help funding future expansion and essential as one of the considerations in the company’s decision-making
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