Short-term forecast of thunderstorms in Argentina

Abstract

The eastern Andes have been described as a hot spot in severe convection. The damages caused in that particular area by convection are much higher than in other latitudes. In contrast, very few studies have been conducted as yet on the thermodynamic characterization of these events or on their forecasting. This paper assesses pre-convective conditions in south-western Argentina on the basis of radiosonde data of 713 days. Additionally, an objective short-term forecast model for storms has been set up. The linear discriminant analysis provided information about the likelihood of storms in the study zone. The forward stepwise method was used to set up the discriminant equation. Testing the results on a validation sample, the outcome was: Probability of detection (POD) = 0.814, False Alarm Rate (FAR) = 0.200; Heidke Skill Score (HSS) = 0.535. Finally, a forecast model was developed for severe storms too, but the results achieved were not so satisfactory.