Abstract
An accurate container throughput forecast is vital for any port. Since overall improvements in port performance and competitiveness can be derailed by port bottlenecks, ports need to find leverage to identify and prioritize measures to improve weak key performance indicators (KPIs) to attain growth opportunities. Prior studies had modeled container throughput from socio-economic and growth projection factors. This study aims to provide a practical method for forecasting the optimal container throughput a port can physically handle/attract given a certain level of terminal operation efficiency through random forest (RF) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) models. The study variables are derived from the port operations dimension and include ship turnaround time, vessel draft, container dwell time, berth productivity, container storage capacity, and custom declaration time. Evaluations are made based on the R-squared, NRMSE, MAE and MAPE. Model comparison is deduced with seven competing models in container throughput forecasting. The findings indicate that the RF model is a potential candidate for forecasting the engineering optimal throughput of Douala port. Model interpretation is provided through feature importance and partial dependence plots. The findings from this study will help reduce uncertainty and provide leverage for port management to spot bottlenecks and engage in better port planning and development projects which will strengthen their international competitive advantage.
Highlights
In the early days of containerization, ports were considered monopolistic due to their strategic locations and port traffic concentration
Port throughput forecasting is imperative in port management
This paper is the first to appear in the literature to explore port key performance indicators (KPIs) associated with port operations for modeling the optimal engineering throughput of a port
Summary
In the early days of containerization, ports were considered monopolistic due to their strategic locations and port traffic concentration. The advent of containerization changed the operational perceptions of ports from a monopolistic standpoint to an era of fierce competition within neighboring ports [1] This competition made port performance a benchmark of a port’s competitive outcome and necessitated ports in paying keen attention to port performance indicators, productivity, and efficiency [2]. Countries located at the corners of the continent are the best-connected countries because they are situated at crossroads where international shipping routes connect to hub ports [3]. Such countries include Cameroon, Morocco, Egypt, South Africa, Togo, Djibouti, Nigeria, and Mauritania.
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