Short-Term Energy Forecasting to Improve the Estimation of Demand Response Baselines in Residential Neighborhoods: Deep Learning vs. Machine Learning

Abstract

Promoting flexible energy demand through response programs in residential neighborhoods would play a vital role in addressing the issues associated with increasing the share of distributed solar systems and balancing supply and demand in energy networks. However, accurately identifying baseline-related energy measurements when activating energy demand response events remains challenging. In response, this study presents a deep learning-based, data-driven framework to improve short-term estimates of demand response baselines during the activation of response events. This framework includes bidirectional long-term memory (BiLSTM), long-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), convolutional neural networks (CNN), deep neural networks (DNN), and recurrent neural networks (RNN). Their performance is evaluated by considering different aggregation levels of the demand response baseline profile for 337 dwellings in the city of La Rochelle, France, over different time horizons, not exceeding 24 h. It is also compared with fifteen traditional statistical and machine learning methods in terms of forecasting accuracy. The results demonstrated that deep learning-based models, compared to others, significantly succeeded in minimizing the gap between the actual and forecasted values of demand response baselines at all different aggregation levels of dwelling units over the considered time-horizons. BiLSTM models, followed by GRU and LSTM, consistently demonstrated the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in most comparison experiments, with values up to 9.08%, 8.71%, and 9.42%, respectively. Compared to traditional statistical and machine learning models, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) was among the best, with a value up to 11.56% of MAPE, but could not achieve the same level of forecasting accuracy in all comparison experiments. Such high performance reveals the potential of the proposed deep learning approach and highlights its importance for improving short-term estimates of future baselines when implementing demand response programs in residential neighborhood contexts.