Short-term energy consumption prediction for university dormitory buildings based on energy consumption grouping by considering meteorological factors and teaching schedules

Abstract

Accurate short-term energy consumption prediction is essential for studying renewable energy utilization in building technologies. University dormitory energy consumption is affected by meteorological factors and teaching schedules, presenting a more complex time series compared to residential buildings, rendering traditional methods unsuitable. Therefore, in the present study, we developed a model called energy consumption grouping-Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise-Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (ECG-ICEEMDAN-BILSTM) for predicting short-term energy consumption in university dormitory buildings. Model was tested using electricity consumption data from university dormitory buildings in cold regions of China. Based on the energy consumption characteristics, we identified two consumption patterns comprising high power energy consumption (HPEC) and low power energy consumption (LPEC). Using the ECG method, data with similar daily energy consumption distributions for HPEC and LPEC were grouped. Subsequently, individual prediction models were constructed based on ICEEMDAN-BILSTM for each specific energy consumption group. The experimental results showed the ECG-ICEEMDAN-BILSTM model obtained more accurate predictions compared with other neural network models. In addition, the model was more effective at forecasting the complex distribution of the HPEC pattern, with reductions of at least 16.21% and 15.82% in MAPE and PRMSE, respectively. Thus, study still can obtain valuable insights to address the problem of short-term prediction using complex time series.