Abstract
Temperature change is an important meteorological indicator reflecting weather stability. This study aimed to examine the effects of ambient temperature change on non-accidental mortality using diurnal temperature change (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) from two perspectives, intra-day and inter-day temperature change, and further, to explore seasonal variations of mortality, identify the susceptible population and investigate the interaction between temperature change and apparent temperature (AT). We collected daily data on cause-specific mortality, air pollutants and meteorological indicators in Shenzhen, China, from 1 January 2013 to 29 December 2017. A Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) were conducted to estimate the effects of season on temperature change-related mortality. In addition, a non-parametric bivariate response surface model was used to explore the interaction between temperature change and AT. The cumulative effect of DTR was a U-shaped curve for non-accidental mortality, whereas the curve for TCN was nearly monotonic. The overall relative risks (RRs) of non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality were 1.407 (95% CI: 1.233–1.606), 1.470 (95% CI: 1.220–1.771) and 1.741 (95% CI: 1.157–2.620) from exposure to extreme large DTR (99th) in cold seasons. However, no statistically significant effects were observed in warm seasons. As for TCN, the effects were higher in cold seasons than warm seasons, with the largest RR of 1.611 (95% CI: 1.384–1.876). The elderly and females were more sensitive, and low apparent temperature had a higher effect on temperature change-related non-accidental mortality. Temperature change was positively correlated with an increased risk of non-accidental mortality in Shenzhen. Both female and elderly people are more vulnerable to the potential adverse effects, especially in cold seasons. Low AT may enhance the effects of temperature change.
Highlights
We found that males and the elderly (≥65 years) died more, and a larger number of deaths occurred in cold seasons (Figure 1)
Temperature changes are usually impacted by many climatic effects, such as increases in cloud cover, changes are usually impacted by many climatic effects, such as increases in cloud cover, precipitation, greenhouse gases and tropospheric aerosols, as well as local effects such as precipitation, greenhouse gases and tropospheric aerosols, as well as local effects such as urban growth, irrigation, desertification and local land use changes [34]
We found a significant association between exposure to temperature changes and non-accidental mortality in Shenzhen
Summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report indicated that the probability of climate-related extremes, such as heat weaves, has more than doubled in some locations, and it predicts that the strength and range will increase in the future [1]. Many human systems experience significant vulnerability and exposure due to current climate variability. In the context of extreme climate change and the frequent occurrence of adverse weather events, many epidemiological studies have found that extreme temperature change may increase the risk of mortality from various diseases [2,3,4,5].
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