Short-term Effect of Intelsat-29e Explosion on GEO Environment

Abstract

Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO) space environment model of the orbital targets with a size above 10 cm was established according to the amended data and space density. The situation of satellite explosion on GEO is simulated, including the number of fragments generated by the explosion, the size distribution as well as the corresponding mass distribution of the fragments. Under the conditions of selecting fragments of different size for analyzing, the area to mass ratio, discrete velocity, and apogee-perigee distribution can be obtained. By simulating the collisions of targets in different size and mass, and the evolution of the space environment when different size thresholds are selected, the necessity of establishing the GEO space environment and evolution model with the threshold size of 10 cm is demonstrated. The feedback collision caused by the fragments generated by the GEO satellite explosion is simulated under the conditions of different collision probability thresholds. The results show that the explosion fragments would cause a high collision risk environment for other GEO orbital targets, and the risky circumstance would last for hours. The impact of explosive debris on the security of the future space environment is analyzed