Short-term and long-term prediction of coal consumption in Shandong Province- with ARIMA Model and Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model

Abstract

We have witnessed the rapid growth of coal consumption in past decades. Shandong Province takes 5% of global coal consumption. This paper takes short-term (2016-2020) and long-term (2020-2030) influence into account to predict coal consumption in Shandong Province based on two linear models (ARIMA Model and Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model). The MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) obtained by these two models are respectively 5.6% and 8% and the accuracy obtained by these two prediction models has exceeded 92%, which has reflected the high reliability of the predicted data. The prediction results also show that the coal consumption in Shandong Province will keep increasing with annual growth rate of 1.9% in the next 15 years. The accurate prediction to the coal consumption in Shandong Province will provide scientific basis for the Shandong Province and the country to adjust and formulate the energy supply and demand policies in the future.