Short run and long run effects of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between Pakistan and Japan

Abstract

Earlier studies that examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows of Pakistan used aggregate trade data either between Pakistan and the rest of the world or at bilateral trade between Pakistan and her major trading partners. Not much support was found for significant impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows by either group. Suspecting that they suffer from aggregation bias, we consider Pakistan–Japan trade flows but disaggregate them by commodity. In total, 44 Pakistani export industries to Japan and 60 Pakistani import industries from Japan were analysed. Contrary to our expectation and other disaggregated studies, not many industries were affected by exchange rate volatility neither in the short run nor in the long run.