Abstract
Given limited observation data, an initial orbit fit is often inaccurate with a large associated error covariance. The affect of the quantity of observations on the error covariance and orbit fit is explored. This paper investigates the entire initial orbit determination estimation chain using simulated ground radar data and filter estimation techniques. A probabilistic approach is developed to determine a specific number of radar observations to estimate the future location of a non-cooperative object within an ellipsoidal error tolerance. Specifically, the article evaluates the estimation chain from observations to orbit fit for covariance realism and develops a numerical sampling technique to calculate the probability of meeting a covariance requirement given a set number of observations, orbit type, and radar performance.
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