Short and long-term survival in metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma, 1993-2013.

Abstract

232 Background: Over the previous two decades several new agents have been approved for the treatment of metastatic pancreatic cancer (mPDAC). Their efficacy was demonstrated amongst highly selected patients that participate in randomized phase III trials, hence it is not clear to what extent these advances are reflected within the broader mPDAC population. We performed a population-based survival analysis of newly diagnosed patients who presented with mPDAC. Methods: Survival statistics were extracted from the Survival, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Database for patients diagnosed with mPDAC between 1993-2013. Demographic variables collected included age, gender, race, and marital status. Tumor characteristics collected included location and grade. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and proportional hazard models as appropriate. Exclusion criteria included diagnosis at autopsy, unknown histology and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. Results: The study population consisted of 57,263 patients diagnosed with mPDAC from 1993-2013, 52% male, median age 69 years (range 15-104). Prognosis correlated with age, gender, race, marital status, tumor location, grade and year of diagnosis. Median overall survival (OS) stayed stable at 2 months between 1993 and 2013. Improvements in OS were seen for all patients, but especially for younger patients ( < 50 years of age) and more recent year of diagnosis group (2009-2013). The percentage of patients who died within two months of initial diagnosis decreased between 1993 and 2013 (from 63.5% to 50.6%, p < 0.0001). The subgroup of patients achieving longer-term survival has increased, with 12-month survival improving from 4.9 % to 12.7% (p < 0.0001) between 1993 and 2013. Conclusions: There has been a continuous but modest improvement in OS of patients diagnosed with mPDAC between 1993 and 2013. The percentage of patients living beyond one year has significantly increased over time; however the percentage of patients dying within 2 months has only slightly decreased.