Short- and long-term food insecurity and policy responses in pandemics: Panel data evidence from COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries

Abstract

We leverage unique panel household phone survey data collected by the World Food Programme (WFP) several months before and 3 years into the COVID-19 pandemic in nine low-and middle-income countries to examine whether the COVID-19 period was associated with increases in food insecurity. We also combine this data with data from the Oxford COVID-19 response tracker to examine how lockdown policies and economic support policies to households have affected food consumption.Our household level panel models show that the COVID-19 period was associated with increases in the proportion of people with insufficient food consumption in seven countries (Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Guatemala, Syria, and Yemen) but not in the other two (Cameroon and El-Salvador). Three years into the pandemic, most of the countries have not recovered from the initial negative impacts that were observed within the first year. The use of coping strategies, such as relying on less preferred food or borrowing to buy food, increased in countries where there was an increase in the proportion of people with insufficient food. Country fixed effect models show that strictness of lockdowns was associated with reductions in food consumption while economic support for COVID-19 to households was associated with improvements in food consumption. We conclude that food security has not recovered 3 years after the onset of COVID-19 and that lockdown policies and other associated generalized effects of the pandemic may be key drivers of food insecurity during pandemics. Household own coping strategies may not be sufficient to protect households from deterioration in food insecurity, but economic support interventions, such as cash transfers, may minimize these deteriorations.