Short analysis for the growth of solar electricity usage

Abstract

Solar electricity generation has been investigated in three different sectors as residential, commercial and industrial. This study aims to forecast the solar electricity generation in 5 years by using statistical analysis and make projection of predictions about what could the solar technology can become in Turkey, using USA data on solar electricity generation since statistical analysis is made by using evaluation of regression analysis for these sectors. The results show that the PV generation for the sectors by years such as distributed solar photovoltaic generation value varies from 10.41 MkW h (1989) to 10,464.61 MkW h (2016) for the residential sector; from 14.72 MkW h (1989) to 7179.62 MkW h (2016) for the commercial sector; and from 3.26 MkW h (1989) to 1822.60 MkW h (2016) for the industrial sector. Additionally, forecast of energy distribution (million kW h) has been carried out that from 12783.96 to 28738.31; from 6524.67 to 8018.74; from 1927.91 to 3435.58 with respect to sectors of residential, commercial and industrial, respectively. These results are obtained with the R2 values (0.968667; 0.932558; 0.716024). Consequently, it would not be wrong to express that the solar energy is no more a novelty, but a necessity with the daily electricity usage. In this study, the novelty lies in study’s unique combination of analysing goals with a benchmarking evaluation between USA and Turkey. This is illustrated with the forecasting energy distribution of over 8%, a component usage of at least three equivalent sectors.