Abstract
Evidence of how resilience factors mitigate the adverse effects of shocks on individuals, households and communities is clearly established. However, such evidence at the macro level is limited, especially on the pace of structural transformation. This paper explores whether the growing incidence of terrorism, armed conflicts and natural disasters in SSA impeded the pace of structural transformation. We conceptualize the notion of macro-resilience and test whether resilience factors mitigate the adverse effects of shocks on two measures of structural transformation: agriculture’s share of GDP and of national employment. We find that structural transformation is impeded by armed conflict and terrorism-related shocks but not natural disasters and that resilience factors enhance the pace of agricultural transformation. This implies that, while agriculture is often destroyed in conflict-affected areas, the broader impacts are even more negative for other sectors of the economy. However, surprisingly, we find negative or insignificant interaction terms between the shock and resilience variables, implying no mitigative role of resilience capacities. This may suggest, in the case of conflicts and terrorism, the presence of major, debilitating effects which limit the mitigative capacity of resilience factors. We further explore the implications for future research and possible strategies to address the growing threats from shocks.
Highlights
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been at the center of global economic development interests since the independence of its nations in the late 1950s and early 1960
We examine how resilience factors mitigate the negative impacts of such shocks on the pace of structural transformation
In this paper, using the contributions of agriculture to national income and employment as indicators of the extent of structural transformation, we explore if selected shocks slow down the pace of structural transformation
Summary
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been at the center of global economic development interests since the independence of its nations in the late 1950s and early 1960. The growing of extraneous from raise armed conflict (e.g., terrorism in the Sahel), natural disasters (e.g., storms), climate (e.g., droughts) and recent health shocks sustainability of SSA’s progress toward structural transformation [19–21]. This is especially so because agriculture, which underpinned recent growth, has borne the brunt of many of these shocks. In light of the above, this paper explores three important, intertwined concepts regarding sustainable growth in SSA: the relationships between resilience, agriculture’s progress and progress toward structural transformation. Because the literature on the role of resilience factors in mitigating the macroeconomic impacts of shocks on the pace of structural transformation in Africa is not well developed, we leverage the literature on resilience at the individual, household and community levels in developing a conceptual framework for evaluating the role of resilience factors in mitigating the impacts of shocks at the scale at which we measure both shocks and structural transformation
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