Shocking Labor Supply: A Reassessment of the Role of World War II on Women's Labor Supply

Claudia Goldin,Claudia Olivetti

doi:10.1257/aer.103.3.257

Abstract

The most prominent feature of the female labor force across the past hundred years is its enormous growth. But many believe that the increase was discontinuous. Our purpose is to identify the short- and long-run impacts of WWII on the labor supply of women who were currently married in 1950 and 1960. Using WWII mobilization rates by state, we find a wartime impact on weeks worked and the labor force participation of married white (non-farm) women in both 1950 and 1960. The impact, moreover, was experienced almost entirely by women in the top half of the education distribution.

Highlights

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We find that most of the impact was general in nature and that the aggregate mobilization rate produces the largest and most robust effect on weeks worked and labor force participation
Perhaps most important, are the results for women 35 to 44 years old in 1940 and 1960. In this case women who were married during WWII with or without children show the greatest longer-run impact from changes in the mobilization rate

Summary

World War II Mobilization Rates

Mobilization in the United States began September 16, 1940 with the Selective Training and Service Act, which called for the registration of all men 21 to 35 years old. Deferments could be granted based on dependents, occupation, and fitness to serve. 5. To identify the general and specific treatment effects of WWII on women, we have produced mobilization rates from US Selective Service bulletins for several groups of men by race, age, and parental status as of August 1, 1945 (see Goldin and Olivetti 2013, Table A.1). Our estimation relies on the fact that mobilization rates varied by state because of the factors that led to deferments (see Acemoglu, Autor, and Lyle 2004, Table 4, and Goldin and Olivetti 2013, Table A.2). The higher the number of deferments, the lower would be the mobilization rate since registrants included those with deferments

Identification Strategy

Results and Interpretation

Concluding Remarks on Shocking Female Labor Supply