Ship Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Fractional Order Gradient Descent with Momentum for RBF Neural Network

Abstract

To prevent the maritime traffic accidents and make scientific decision, scientific and accurate prediction of the traffic flow is useful, which has often been made by neural network. The weight updating methods have played an important role in improving the performance of neural networks. To ameliorate the oscillating phenomenon in training radial basis function (RBF) neural network, a fractional order gradient descent (GD) with momentum method for updating the weights of RBF neural network (FOGDM-RBF) is proposed. Its convergence is proved. The new algorithm is used to predict vessel traffic flow at Xiamen Port. It performs stable and converges to zero as the iteration increases. The results verify the theoretical results of the proposed algorithm such as its monotonicity and convergence. The descending curve of error values by fractional order GDM is smoother than the GD and GDM method. Error analysis shows that the algorithm can effectively accelerate the convergence speed of the GD method and improve its performance with high accuracy and validity. The influence of fractional order, number of hidden layer neurons, tide peak hours, and ship size is analyzed and compared. 1. Introduction As the world shipping becomes more and more busy, the large ship traffic flow leads to frequent maritime traffic accidents, resulting in huge economic losses. Ship traffic flow is a basic system in marine traffic engineering and an important index to measure the construction of marine traffic infrastructure. Its prediction results can provide basis for formulating scientific Port management planning and ship navigation management. Therefore, to ensure the accuracy and rationality of ship traffic flow forecasting is of great significance for improving port infrastructure construction and formulating scientific port management strategies. Many advanced artificial intelligence optimization algorithms have been used for ship traffic flow forecasting, such as artificial neural network (Zhai 2013; Zhang 2015). Neural network can deal with complex nonlinear problems and has achieved some results. However, the neural network itself has some shortcomings, such as slow learning speed, easy to fall into the local extremum, learning and memory instability, etc.