Ship collision risk assessment: A multi-criteria decision-making framework based on Dempster–Shafer evidence theory

Abstract

Ship collision risk modelling is dominated by the utilization of the experts’ experiential insights and knowledge. To construct an effective assessment model for evaluating potential ship collision risks grounded in expert judgments, this paper introduces a novel multi-criteria decision-making framework based on Dempster–Shafer evidence theory (DSET). Firstly, a novel index-based assessment system is provided to generate the potential collision risk value of ships based on automatic identification system (AIS) data, which encompasses ship condition parameters, deviation coefficient, and frequency coefficient. Further, to generate the weights of these indicators, a framework to extract expert opinions is provided, which includes two parts: a) converting experts’ opinions into D-S framework through hesitant fuzzy linguistic terms and b) generating experts’ opinions using improved DSET. Regarding part a, a methodology is proposed to evaluate the trustworthiness of experts by considering both the level of uncertainty in their opinions and the degree of similarity between their viewpoints. Concerning part b, strategies are integrated to ascertain the most suitable weight for the basic probability assignment, thereby mitigating conflicts within the evidence. Finally, based on the collected AIS data, the proposed framework has been applied to six of the world's busiest waterways: (1) the Strait of Malacca, (2) the English Channel, (3) the Panama Canal, (4) the Suez Canal, (5) the Danish Straits, and (6) the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequently, comprehensive analytical results and recommendations are furnished, such as wide and smooth channels showing elevated risk.