Shifts in the spatio-temporal growth dynamics of shortleaf pine

Abstract

Previous studies focusing on the growth history of Pinus echinata at the edge of its geographical range have suggested that changes in growth correspond to climatic and non-climatic (e.g., anthropogenic) factors. We employ a regime-dependent state-space model that allows us to detect and characterize the changes in tree growth dynamics over space and time using readily available dendrochronological and climatic data in the presence of various sources of uncertainty. We utilize methods common in atmospheric sciences but relatively unknown in ecology and forestry to develop a hierarchical model for tree growth and describe the growth dynamics. The utility of such methods for addressing ecological problems will grow as more high dimensional spatio-temporal processes are considered and datasets become more readily available.