Shifts in Herd Mentality of Investors in Uncertain Market Conditions: New Evidence in the Context of a Frontier Stock Market

Abstract

This paper examines the herding phenomenon in the context of a frontier stock market, the Colombo Stock Exchange of Sri Lanka, employing the cross - sectional absolute deviation methodology to daily frequencies of data for the period from April, 2000 to September, 2016. The results show significant changes in magnitude and pattern of herding over different episodes of the market. The herd behavior is strongly presence irrespective of the direction of the market movement in the 2000 - 2008 period, during which investments in the stock market is affected by the country’s political instability resulting from the civil war. The evidence also shows herd behavior during the period of market bubble whereas negative herding in the market crash period. However, it becomes less likely to occur during the period after the market crash. The lower tendency to herd during the post- market crash period supports the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, implying that investors are likely to realize the irrationality of herding and learn to be more rational as a consequence of significant losses experienced during the period of the market crash. Accordingly, these findings suggest that period- specific characteristics of the market and the associated psychological effects to investors such as overconfidence and panics would cause changes to their beliefs and behavior, the experiences of which would subsequently produce learning effect to minimize their irrationality in decision making.