Shifting Toward Clean Energy Technology: Assessing Vietnam Critical Minerals Demand and Domestic Resources

Abstract

Abstract Vietnam is progressing toward an energy transition to achieve the 2050 net-zero emissions target by switching from fossil fuel-based to clean energy technologies. According to Politburo’s Resolution No. 55, the renewable energy share in the total primary energy supply will account for 30% by 2045. The newly approved National Power Development Plan set the target to increase the renewables share to 63% of total installed capacity by 2050. The demand for clean energy equipment, such as solar photovoltaic modules, wind turbines, and batteries, is expected to grow rapidly as a result of the decarbonization pathways for the power and transportation sectors in the coming decades. The manufacturing of clean energy equipment will require substantial amounts of critical minerals. Therefore, this study evaluates the demand for major critical minerals in producing clean energy equipment, including cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, silicon, and rare earth elements. The critical minerals demand is estimated based on critical mineral intensities and additional capacities of clean energy equipment to be installed in 2021-2030 and 2031-2050 stages under Vietnam’s current policies. The results show that the total critical minerals demand in 2021-2030 and 2031-2050 is estimated to increase approximately three-fold and 15-fold, respectively, compared to the 2021 level. Furthermore, the article reviews Vietnam’s critical mineral resources and the potential contribution to domestic and global supply in the coming years.