Shifting Dynamics of the Insurgency and Counter-insurgency in the North Caucasus

Abstract

This paper seeks to provide an explanation of the shifts and trends in the insurgency and Russian counter-insurgency strategy in the North Caucasus. The article first identifies the multiple factors that initially contributed to the radicalization and Islamization of the conflict in Chechnya and how this fostered increased instability in the North Caucasus by the late 1990s, representing a serious threat to the security and integrity of the Russian state. The subsequent section sets out how the incoming prime minister and then president Vladimir Putin seized on the growing crisis in the North Caucasus to develop and refine a new strategy that not only gained the support of the general Russian public, but also was a critical factor in cementing his personal popularity. The strategy also had some notable successes, not least in the relative pacification of Chechnya and the start of the reconstruction of the war-damaged republic. However, the strategy also had its less successful and more negative consequences, which have revived and changed the nature of the insurgency towards a more Islamist and diffuse character and presented new challenges for Russia's counter-insurgency strategy. The final section makes a division between the social, economic and political factors and the religious and ideological factors that are driving the insurgency and argues that greater weight should be accorded to the religious and ideological factors than is often accorded by analysts.