Abstract
AbstractAimClimate change is expected to cause mountain species to shift their ranges to higher elevations. Due to the decreasing amounts of habitats with increasing elevation, such shifts are likely to increase their extinction risk. Heterogeneous mountain topography, however, may reduce this risk by providing microclimatic conditions that can buffer macroclimatic warming or provide nearby refugia. As aspect strongly influences the local microclimate, we here assess whether shifts from warm south‐exposed aspects to cool north‐exposed aspects in response to climate change can compensate for an upward shift into cooler elevations.LocationSwitzerland, Swiss Alps.MethodsWe built ensemble distribution models using high‐resolution climate data for two mountain‐dwelling viviparous ectotherms, the Alpine salamander and the Common lizard, and projected them into various future scenarios to gain insights into distributional changes. We further compared elevation and aspect (northness) of current and predicted future locations to analyse preferences and future shifts.ResultsFuture ranges were consistently decreasing for the lizard, but for the salamander they were highly variable, depending on the climate scenario and threshold rule. Aspect preferences were elevation‐dependent: warmer, south‐exposed microclimates were clearly preferred at higher compared to lower elevations. In terms of presence and future locations, we observed both elevational upward shifts and northward shifts in aspect. Under future conditions, the shift to cooler north‐exposed aspects was particularly pronounced at already warmer lower elevations.Main conclusionsFor our study species, shifts in aspect and elevation are complementary strategies to mitigate climatic warming in the complex mountain topography. This complements the long‐standing view of elevational upward shift being their only option to move into areas with suitable future climate. High‐resolution climate data are critical in heterogeneous environments to identify microrefugia and thereby improving future impact assessments of climate change.
Highlights
Recent anthropogenic climate change is globally affecting all biota (Parmesan, 2006; Root et al, 2003; Walther et al, 2002; Wiens, 2016)
This clearly indicates that many southern slopes at lower elevations may become too warm and/or too dry in the future. This pattern is weaker, with some predicted northward shifts of the salamander and the lizard even showing no response to future warming. These results show that climate change response of biota in complex mountain topography is complex and that high-resolution data are needed to identify terrain-based microrefugia that can mitigate the effect of climate change (Bennie, Wilson, Maclean, & Suggitt, 2014; Dobrowski, 2011; Meineri & Hylander, 2017; Potter et al, 2013)
The limited potential of cold-adapted high mountain species, of which many are even mountain endemics, to respond to climate change is of major concern to conservationists
Summary
Recent anthropogenic climate change is globally affecting all biota (Parmesan, 2006; Root et al, 2003; Walther et al, 2002; Wiens, 2016). Mountains exhibit a complex topography and factors like aspect affect the local temperature and water balance and lead to heterogeneous microclimates at small spatial scales, which often differ starkly from the regional climate (Austin & van Niel, 2011; Dobrowski, 2011; Scherrer & Körner, 2011; Winkler et al, 2016) These microclimates can locally buffer against the effects of regional warming, offer stepping stones for migration or provide suitable alternative habitats within short distances and weaken the impact of climate change and may even prevent an upslope shift (Kulonen et al, 2017; Meineri & Hylander, 2017; Opedal, Armbruster, & Graae, 2015; Scherrer & Körner, 2011; Suggitt et al, 2018). Rising temperatures may have negative impacts on populations of the Common lizard due to more restricted activity periods, declined juvenile dispersal or decreased adult survival (Bestion, Teyssier, Richard, Clobert, & Cote, 2015; Massot, Clobert, & Ferrière, 2008; Wang, Ma, Shao, & Ji, 2017)
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