Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Hermine Mitter,Klaus Mittenzwei,Kasper Kok,Adrian Leip,Katharina Helming,Bano Mehdi,Heikki Lehtonen,Chantal Le Mouël,Martin Schönhart,Lillian Øygarden,Franz Sinabell,Rüdiger Schaldach,Knut Øistad,Olivier Mora,Erik Mathijs,Erwin Schmid,Benjamin Leon Bodirsky ,P Reidsma ,Ian P Holman ,Anja-Kristine Techen ,Jörg Priess

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102159

Abstract

Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.

Highlights

Changes in climatic, environmental, socio-economic and technolo gical conditions, whether gradual or abrupt, can be challenging for agricultural and societal systems to deal with, but at the same time may offer new opportunities for enhancing agricultural and food sustain ability (e.g., Bebber et al, 2013; Knox et al, 2016; Leclère et al, 2014; Liu et al, 2019; Reich et al, 2018)
The article is structured as follows: in Section 2, we describe how the collected data were analyzed by following the nine transparent and stakeholder inclusive working steps of the Mitter et al (2019) protocol; in Section 3, we provide the main outcomes of the multi-year, partici patory scenario development process; in Section 4, we discuss appli cation potentials of the Eur-Agri-Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and major challenges en countered in the development process; and in Section 5 we conclude with lessons learned
The Eur-Agri-SSPs describe plausible but contrasting futures of the European agriculture and food systems, characterized by a number of socio-economic, environmental and technological drivers and their in teractions, which have been identified as important and uncertain for the European agriculture and food systems. These drivers are based on the SSPs and Eur-SSPs but were strongly refined in a participatory process to satisfy researchers’ and stakeholders’ demands. Both scenario methodological rigor and thematic depth facilitate a broad range of potential applications, including integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems, and policy and decision making

Summary

Introduction

Environmental, socio-economic and technolo gical conditions, whether gradual or abrupt, can be challenging for agricultural and societal systems to deal with, but at the same time may offer new opportunities for enhancing agricultural and food sustain ability (e.g., Bebber et al, 2013; Knox et al, 2016; Leclère et al, 2014; Liu et al, 2019; Reich et al, 2018). We apply a scenario approach to develop socio-eco nomic storylines describing alternative plausible future pathways for the European agriculture and food systems. Scenarios can be qualitative storylines (i.e., narratives), quantified descriptions of alternative futures, or anything in between (IPCC, 2014; Reed et al, 2013; Swart et al, 2004). They can be used to describe, explore and communicate how the future may unfold. A scenario matrix is used to structure future developments along two causally independent drivers, and to provide a basic frame for comparing and contrasting scenarios

Results

Discussion

Conclusion