Share price prediction of aerospace relevant companies with recurrent neural networks based on PCA

Abstract

The capital market plays a vital role in marketing operations for the rapid development of the aerospace industry. However, due to the uncertainty and complexity of the stock market and many cyclical factors, the stock prices of listed aerospace companies fluctuate significantly. This makes the share price prediction challengeable. To improve the prediction of share price for aerospace industry sector and well understand the impact of various indicators on stock prices, we provided a hybrid prediction model by the combination of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN).We investigated two types of aerospace industries (manufacturer and operator). The experimental results show that PCA could improve both accuracy and efficiency of prediction. Various factors could influence the performance of prediction models, such as finance data, extracted features, optimisation algorithms, and parameters of the prediction model. The selection of features may depend on the stability of historical data: technical features could be the first option when the share price is stable, whereas fundamental features could be better when the share price has high fluctuation. The delays of RNN also depend on the stability of historical data for different types of companies. It would be more accurate through using short-term historical data for aerospace manufacturers, whereas using long-term historical data for aerospace operating airlines.The developed model could be an intelligent agent in an automatic stock prediction system, with which, the financial industry could make a prompt decision for their economic strategies and business activities in terms of predicted future share price, thus improving the return on investment. The study is for the prediction of aerospace industries at pre-COVID-19 time. Currently, COVID-19 severely influences aerospace industries. The developed approach can be used to predict the share price of aerospace industries at post COVID-19 time.